India's Russian Crude Oil Imports Rebound in October After Dip
India has resumed increasing its crude oil imports from Russia in October, reversing a three-month declining trend seen since July. According to shipping traffic data, the country's imports had fallen from around 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in June to approximately 1.6 million bpd by September. However, the first half of October has shown a noticeable uptick.
Industry analysts suggest that the surge is driven by Indian refineries operating at full capacity to meet the festive season's heightened fuel demand. This spike was further supported by increased supply of Russian grades like Urals and improved discounts, stemming from weakened demand in Western markets.
Preliminary data from global analytics firm Kpler indicates that India imported nearly 1.8 million bpd of Russian oil during early October — an increase of about 250,000 bpd compared to September. Kpler noted that these figures may be adjusted as more shipping data becomes available.
This recovery in imports occurred before former U.S. President Donald Trump recently claimed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to halt Russian oil imports. The statement was swiftly denied by India’s Ministry of External Affairs. Spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal clarified that no such agreement had been made and reiterated that Russian oil remains a key component of India’s energy strategy.
Sumit Ritolia, Kpler’s lead analyst for refining and modeling, emphasized that Trump’s remarks seem more like political pressure than any real policy development. He added that Russian crude continues to play a significant role in India’s oil ecosystem due to economic, strategic, and contractual reasons. Indian refineries also confirmed they had received no official directive to stop purchasing Russian oil.
India began ramping up oil purchases from Russia following the Ukraine conflict in early 2022. As Western sanctions pushed Russian barrels away from European buyers, they became available to countries like India at steep discounts, helping to ease the burden of rising global energy costs.
With international prices fluctuating and energy demand rising domestically, Indian refiners are expected to continue leveraging such discounted sources — ensuring both affordability and energy security.